by Todd Neeley (DTN Progressive Farmer) … Steve Csonka, executive director of the initiative ( Commercial Aviation Alternative Fuels Initiative), said during a recent panel discussion at the Fuel Ethanol Workshop in Omaha that it is unclear how or if SAF production can continue to grow to eventually replace all fossil-based fuel by 2050.
Csonka said the airline industry feels confident it can achieve 3 billion gallons of SAF production and use by 2030.
Beyond that, he said, it gets more difficult to see a way forward.
“The good news is that for these facilities identified, they will be responsible for producing 1.8 billion, so not a bad start — got a couple of years — three years basically after this to add another 1.1 billion more,” Csonka said.
Perhaps overall SAF production will explode as new production companies continue to emerge, he said.
“Some of these entities have been working in the background for five years, and they’re actually ready to start their commercialization activity,” Csonka said.
“So, I remain extremely encouraged with respect to the 3-billion goal and 2030. After that, it gets really hard. It gets hard because in these first years, that 1.8 billion gallons, about 70-plus percent of that comes from fats, oils and greases. The rest is coming from alcohol conversions, municipal solid waste, probably some pyrolysis stuff comes into play, but we need to unlock significant regions of feedstock viability as well as technology in order to achieve that 2050 goal.”
When the Renewable Fuels Association committed in 2021 to achieving net-zero emissions in the industry by 2050, Csonka said it opened the door for the airline industry to pursue ethanol producers as a viable option for SAF production.
“This was critical that RFA came out and said, ‘Hey, we as an industry are going to try to drive ethanol production to net-zero carbon also,'” he said.
“What that means for us is that it opens the door for using ethanol as a feedstock with this kind of sustainability associated with it and allows us to achieve carbon indexes from final fuel production that qualify for policy support that’s available here in the U.S.”
PRICE DISPARITIES
Csonka said airlines will continue to deal with a price disparity between SAF and regular aviation fuel. Keeping the costs reasonable for airlines while expanding production is one challenge the industry faces, he said.
Even after credits through the low-carbon fuel standard in California, a federal blender’s tax credit and income from D4 renewable identification numbers in the Renewable Fuel Standard, S&P said the average daily price of SAF is about $4.25 a gallon.
Kerosene-based aviation fuel, by contrast, has been priced between $2.15 and $2.30 per gallon in recent months.
Renewable energy enthusiasts point to other technologies eventually helping airline companies achieve their emissions goals.
Csonka said electrification of modestly sized airplanes is underway, including civil-aviation vehicles and commuter planes.
“Nice progress has been made there no question,” he said. “But, look, the amount of carbon that segment produces is less than 1% today. So, the bottom line is the technology needed for larger aircraft electrification, or the use of hydrogen is not viable for decades without major paradigm changes.
“But across the industry, this is the approach that we’re all looking at — SAP hydrogen-powered aircraft might come into play at some point in the future. That does not appear to be anytime in the near future. Electrification may also, but guess what, they’re not going to touch the most significant contributor of greenhouse gases which is that large aircraft segment until the 2050 timeframe.
“This is why the industry is all in on SAF because we don’t have any other viable approaches to reduce our greenhouse-gas footprint.” READ MORE